Posts tagged india and pakistan

A man unloads clay tiles, used for flooring and roofs, at a makeshfit factory in Karachi.

India may have  a bigger problem in Pakistan that previously thought. More than half of Pakistanis surveyed in a Pew poll  say India is a bigger threat than al Qaeda or the Taliban. So it’s not just the Pakistani military that believes bigger, richer  India to be the existential threat;  a majority of ordinary people share that perception and that surely ought to worry Indian policy planners looking to find a way around the security establishment and make an opening to the Pakistani people.   Only 23 percent thought the Taliban was the greatest threat to their country, and just 3 percent for al Qaeda, despite the rising tide of militant violence in not just Pakistan’s turbulent northwest region on the Afghan border, but also its cities in the heartland. 

More troubling for India, Pakistanis have mixed views about Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Pakistan based organisation that New Delhi has blamed for a series of attacks in India including the Mumbai assault of 2008.  Just 35% have a negative view of the group, a much lower percentage than for the other extremist organizations tested. One-in-four Pakistanis express a positive assessment, while 40% offer no opinion, Pew reported. For a large number of Indians, memories of the  26/11 attacks in Mumbai are still too fresh, and this will only reinforce  negative perception of the neighbour. Indeed,  India has virtually made all dialogue with Pakistan conditional on the steps in takes to roll up groups like the Lashkar.  The latest poll findings will only strengthen the case of the hawks in New Delhi watchful for any sign of a concession to a country they consider pathologically opposed to India.

One must approach all surveys with caution, especially so in countries such as India and Pakistan with very large population figures .  Pew conducted face-to-face interviews with 2,000 adults in Pakistan between April 13 to 28, 2010. It says the sample was disproportionately urban, and parts of the troubled areas of the northwest and Baluchistan were not covered. For a country with a population of over 170 million, drawing hard conclusions based on a sample size that small  must come with a mandatory health warning. 

Still, there were some positive take-aways.  Despite the deep-seated tensions between these two countries, most Pakistanis want better relations with India. Roughly seven-in-ten (72%) say it is important for relations with India to improve and about three-quarters support increased trade with India and further talks between the two rivals.  But India wouldn’t talk unless Pakistan acts against the groups and their patrons  that it considers waging an asymmetric war against it. And Pakistan won’t act because it doesn’t consider them to be a threat in the way India does.  How do you square such a circle ?

The Indians can take some comfort from the equally poor approval ratings for the United States.    Roughly six in10 (59 percent) Pakistanis describe the U.S. as an enemy.And President Barack Obama is unpopular — only 8% of Pakistanis express confidence that he will do the right thing in world affairs, his lowest ratingamong the 22 nations. So for all the money that has been lavished on Pakistan, the United States seems to be getting nowhere in winning public support. Indeed,  support for the U.S. involvement in the fight against extremists fell over the last year. “The lesson unlearned in fifty years is that feeding Pakistan cash will not alter a national psychosis of war and hatred for the U.S,” as Dr. Aseem Shukla wrote in the Washington Post.

By contrast, the United States enjoys one of the strongest approvals anywhere in the world in India where it provides almost no humanitarian assistance.  A Pew survey last month found India among the top six countries with favourable ratings for America. 

Pakistani expert Imtiaz Gul says the  more Pakistan becomes the subject of international criticism, the more alienated Pakistanis grow. This week, Pakistan is back in the international  glare following the release of classified military documents reinforcing allegations that it was actively collaborating with the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan while accepting massive U.S. aid to fight the militants.  First British Prime Minister David Cameron kicked off a diplomatic offensive against Pakistan,  saying that it cannot be “allowed to look both ways and is able  promote the export of terror, whether to India or whether to Afghanistan, or anywhere else in the world.”    It was the bluntest warning yet from a British leader, delivered during a visit to India  which must rankle further.

And then Afghan President Hamid Karzai  demanded NATO action against militant havens in Pakistan,  raising questions about whether a new-found partnership with Pakistan to find a negotiated settlement would withstand  the impact of the disclosures.   

Is it any wonder then that Pakistanis feel encircled – a rising economic power, India to its east which also threatens its western flank by expanding influence in Afghanistan like a dagger pointed at its heart ?  And then America breathing hard down its neck with its do-more mantra  that has taken a heavy toll of Pakistan blood and treasure.

Overall Pakistanis themselves  remain in a grim mood about the state of their country. Overwhelming majorities are dissatisfied with national conditions, unhappy with the nation’s economy, and concerned about political corruption and crime. Only one-in-five express a positive view of President Asif Ali Zardari, down from 64% just two years ago, Pew said.